Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
